Here you can find all of my currently available economic research (if you are looking for my book, click here).

• Coming soon: new work that brings a model with rationally inattentive consumers to consumer survey data; a more general and robust look at forecast efficiency; a look at consumers’ views of the inflation target; using supervisory data on banks to better inform DSGE models with financial sectors; and more…

• “Consumer Inflation Expectations Across Surveys and over Time” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary EC 2025-07 (with Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Damjan Pfajfar, and Raphael Schoenle).
  • From the abstract: Different survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations have diverged in recent months. This Economic Commentary compares these measures and the survey questions underlying them. Our analysis suggests that the divergences across survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be attributed to various features and sample characteristics specific to each survey.
• “Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation.” International Journal of Forecasting, in press (with James Mitchell and Hana Braitsch).
  • From the abstract: This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households’ inflationary expectations – the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households’ point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combined density forecasts are constructed. Tenured households produce more accurate density forecasts, although on average they remain underconfident in their own forecasting performance.
• “Are revisions to state-level GDP data in the US well behaved?” Economics Letters, vol. 254 (with James Mitchell).
  • From the abstract: No: Revisions to first estimates of quarterly state-level GDP growth tend to be biased, large, and/or predictable using information known at the time of the first estimate.
• “The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper Series, WP 24-01R (with Edward S. Knotek II, James Mitchell, and Mathieu Pedemonte).
  • From the abstract: We study how monetary policy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers’ inflation expectations in real time. In a large-scale, multi-wave randomized controlled trial (RCT), we find weak evidence that communicating these policy changes lowers consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations on average. However, information differs systematically across demographic groups, in terms of ex ante informedness about monetary policy and ex post compliance with the information treatment. Monetary policy communications have a much stronger effect on the subset of consumers who had not previously heard news about monetary policy and who take sufficient time to read the treatment. Our findings show that, in an inflationary environment, these consumers expect that raising interest rates will lower inflation. More generally, our results emphasize the importance of measuring both respondents’ information sets and their compliance with treatment when using RCTs in empirical macroeconomics to better understand the real-world implications of monetary policy communications.
• “The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary EC 2023-10 (with Christian Garciga, Edward S. Knotek II, and Mathieu Pedemonte).
  • From the abstract: This Economic Commentary summarizes results from the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), which asks top business executives for their inflation expectations once per quarter alongside a second question from a rotating set. We document that this group’s inflation expectations increased with the run-up in inflation over 2021 and 2022 but then began to decline in early 2023.

A number of old blog posts, mostly about monetary policy and macroeconomics, are available on my Substack, which inexplicably still has over 600 subscribers despite long being dormant. I have also guest written an article over at Joey Politano’s Apricitas (I also happened to make Joey’s “Best of the Best” list for 2022!), as well as for Exponents Magazine (link may be dead).